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The first thing I evaluate in any match-up is the QB rotations for the upcoming games. I look for teams that have an experienced back up and third string QB who may get the advantage of facing 2nd and 3rd string defenses in the 2nd half. This is a significant edge when you get into the 2nd half and match up the experienced QB vs. 2nd and 3rd string defenses. On the other side of the ball you will also see young inexperienced QBs who have difficulty adjusting to the speed of play and sophisticated defensive schemes in the NFL and who have either had limited snaps in the NFL or who may be taking their first NFL snaps. Where can you find these QB rotations? It will usually take a little bit of reading but you can get a good idea of what the Head Coach's plan is by reviewing their weekly press conference notes and game previews on teams' websites.
The 2nd factor I look closely at is the Head Coach. The bottom line here is that some coaches want to instill a winning attitude in teams while others just want to establish their offensive and defensive schemes. Teams coming off bad regular seasons with new coaches may have that added motivation to perform well and win in the Pre Season while veteran teams with veteran coaches may be more interested in preparation and development of the team with a much smaller emphasis on the end result in the win/loss column. There is no black or white answer here, but look for a team's motivational edge that may be tied to the coach. Again, research teams' websites for the weekly press conference, game previews and read the teams' local papers to gain better insight to what the coaching staff's plan is for a given week and be aware they usually change from week to week.
Third find out as much as you can about a team's depth. This is a big factor in Pre Season games especially in the first two games when backups and players deep on the depth charts will see a lot of action from the 2nd quarter on. Most of these players are free agents trying to make the squad and there can be a significant difference in this talent from one team to another. Check the team's depth charts during the pre season to give you an idea of what type of talent and experience you will see the 2nd half of games.
Look for situational edges that can give you an advantage. How does each coach handle each game? Is game #3 or #4 going to be the dress rehearsal for a team? The schedule is not even in the pre season, is one team playing their 2nd game while one team is in their dress rehearsal 3rd game. Examine the schedule closely for possible motivational edges in conjunctions with Coaching Staff's plan for the week.
Lastly, does the posted number look too good to be true? If it does, take the time to evaluate the above tips and chances are you will find the reason why a public team may be posted at a number that looks too good to be true. If you follow these simple guidelines and take the time to research and evaluate the above factors, August can be a profitable month.
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